In my first two posts on the MLS draft I was looking at patterns in the 2009 and 2010 drafts. I've now started looking at the data from the first 5 seasons. Again, I'm using minutes played as an indicator of success. I'm not attempting to predict which players should be picked when and who will be successful in MLS, but instead I'm trying to reveal patterns that show a breakdown in the draft decision making process.
Showing posts with label 2010 MLS Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 MLS Draft. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
On the MLS Draft Part One
I've been playing around with Tableau Public a little more and I have to say I'm impressed. I decided to revisit some work I had done on the MLS draft. Mid-season I decided to look at the correlation between a player's selection spot and the amount of impact they are having with their new team. Currently there is no good metric to estimate impact, so I used minutes played. Yes, it is a very imperfect metric, but it does provide an easy way to compare players of any position. The logic behind using minutes played is that it shows a baseline ability that player X is good enough to make it onto the playing field. If they perform well, they will be selected again, if not, then they won't see much playing time. It tells us nothing about potential or future performance nor about the quality of those minutes played. Certainly there are unique circumstances in each team that could affect a players minutes, but as a stake in the ground to get started I think it's a decent metric.
When I first looked at the data, I noticed that minutes played seemed to decay exponentially as the selection number increased, with a handful of outliers. The drop off was a little surprising. It shows that there are only a handful of players in the draft class that are able to come in and make an impact straight away. Looking at the data again, but this time with the ability to filter by position, I noticed that defenders taken later in the draft outperformed their expected minutes. Something to keep in mind if you're looking for cover in the back and need someone to step up immediately.
When I first looked at the data, I noticed that minutes played seemed to decay exponentially as the selection number increased, with a handful of outliers. The drop off was a little surprising. It shows that there are only a handful of players in the draft class that are able to come in and make an impact straight away. Looking at the data again, but this time with the ability to filter by position, I noticed that defenders taken later in the draft outperformed their expected minutes. Something to keep in mind if you're looking for cover in the back and need someone to step up immediately.
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